The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on October 28, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. The policy rate is 2.25%. Here is what the main signals say going in, and what each outcome would mean for borrowers.
The bond market is leaning toward higher rates
The 2-year Government of Canada bond yield was 3.32% on October 20, 107 basis points above the policy rate. By our rule of thumb, a gap above 50 bps means bond traders are pricing increases over the next two years. The 2-year yield is up 43 bps in the last 90 days.
This is a signal about the path, not about October 28 itself. Yields can reverse on inflation, jobs or oil news, and the Bank can hold even when the market expects a move. The daily number is on the bond-market rate forecast.
One economist call on file: a hold now, a possible hike later
The most recent call we have logged for this meeting is a hold. Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, expects the Bank to hold on October 28, according to Canadian Mortgage Professional on October 19. She sees energy-driven inflation as unlikely to push underlying inflation higher, and says the Bank would be ready to tighten if price pressures broaden and persist. In September she said a hike was more likely by late 2026 or early 2027.
The full list of economists, their latest calls and the original articles is on the Bank of Canada rate predictions page, along with what prediction markets price for the meeting and a one-vote-per-device poll.
What the Bank has said
The Bank has kept the rate at 2.25%. Its recent communications describe oil-driven fuel prices lifting headline inflation in the near term, and a Council weighing whether the current rate still balances the risks. It has said it wants to avoid acting too early and also avoid responding too slowly if inflation proves persistent.
What each outcome means for a mortgage
- Hold: variable and HELOC rates stay where they are. Fixed rates follow bond yields, so they can still move after a hold.
- Hike: lenders usually move prime within days, and a 25 bps increase raises a variable-rate payment by about 0.25 points of interest.
- Cut: the reverse of a hike. This is the least likely outcome given where yields are.
Fixed rates have already been moving with the bond market, which is why renewals coming up in the next few months are worth reviewing now rather than on decision day. The renewal wall piece covers how many mortgages that affects.
Where to follow it
We update the current rate and full decision history when the Bank announces on October 28. This is not financial advice or a forecast from bips or the Bank of Canada.