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Bank of Canada forecasting: who sets rates, who is calling it, and where you think they go

The Bank of Canada's next rate decision is October 28, 2026. Here is who makes it, what they and the economists who watch them are saying, and where you think it lands.

Council membership per the Bank of Canada's summary of deliberations for September 2, 2026.

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The Governing Council

Six people set the policy rate together. The Governor announces it.

bips read of the council: 0 hawkish, 1 neutral, 0 dovish.

Tiff Macklem

Governor

Bank of Canada

Signals a hold

bips read: Neutral

· Inflation outlook

Assessing whether the unchanged rate still balances the risks

Council is weighing whether the current rate still balances the risks to the inflation outlook. Oil-driven fuel prices are lifting headline inflation in the near term, and the Bank is watching for any spread through the wider economy. He said it wants to avoid acting too early and also avoid responding too slowly if inflation proves persistent.

Source: Bank of Canada, Halifax Partnership speech

· Rate decision

Holds the policy rate at 2.25%

Growth has picked up after a weak stretch, but the durability of the rebound is less certain given new US tariffs. Higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict raise the risk of inflation staying above target, though the Bank is looking through the direct fuel effect for now. Governing Council says it is ready to adjust policy if needed.

Source: Bank of Canada, opening statement

Economists and forecasters

The people whose calls move expectations before the Bank does, and what they said most recently.

Calling a hike
3
Calling a hold
4
Calling a cut
0

Counted from each economist's latest logged statement, out of 7 with a stated call. Compare it with the visitor poll above.

  • Sherry Cooper

    Chief Economist

    Dominion Lending Centres

    Calls a hold

    bips read: Leans hawkish

    · October 28 decision

    Expects a hold on October 28, ready to tighten if pressures broaden

    Sees energy-driven inflation as unlikely to push underlying inflation higher, so she expects the Bank to hold at its October 28 meeting. She says it would be ready to tighten if price pressures broaden and persist.

    Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026

    Earlier statements (1)

    • · Rate outlook

      A hike is more likely by late 2026 or early 2027

      Expects the Bank to raise rates, probably not in October but more likely later this year or early next year, so borrowing costs climb over the next 6 to 12 months. She advises brokers to push clients toward pre-approvals now and sees fixed rates as attractive.

      Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Sep 24, 2026

  • Derek Holt

    Head of Capital Markets Economics

    Scotiabank

    Calls a hike

    bips read: Leans hawkish

    · October 28 decision

    Firms up a call for an October hike

    Scotiabank firmed up its call for a hike after the inflation data. He argues that if markets have largely priced in a hike, the Bank is likely to deliver it, because holding off would loosen financial conditions and be hard to justify.

    Source: Bloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026

  • Royce Mendes

    Head of Macro Strategy

    Desjardins Group

    Calls a hike

    bips read: Leans hawkish

    · October 28 decision

    Desjardins flips to calling a hike to 2.50%

    Argues central banks can no longer look past the inflation effects of high energy prices. He expects broader consumer price increases soon and says rising longer-term inflation expectations make action necessary, with Desjardins now forecasting a hike to 2.50% on October 28.

    Source: Bloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026

  • Shelly Kaushik

    Economist

    BMO

    Calls a hike

    bips read: Leans hawkish

    · October 28 decision

    BMO flips to calling a hike to 2.50%

    BMO now expects a rate increase to 2.50% on October 28. She sees upside risks to inflation despite a milder-than-expected CPI reading, pointing to trade tensions and high energy prices, neither of which shows signs of ending.

    Source: Bloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026

  • Andrew Grantham

    Senior Economist

    CIBC

    bips read: Leans hawkish

    · Timing of a first hike

    A first hike could come earlier than January

    CIBC had pencilled in a first hike for January, but he says it could come sooner, citing the move in bond yields after the Governor weekend remarks. He is the earliest-timing voice among the economists quoted in that roundup.

    Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026

  • Leslie Preston

    Managing Director and Senior Economist

    TD Economics

    Calls a hold

    bips read: Neutral

    · October 28 decision

    Expects the Bank to stay on hold this year

    Says higher energy costs have not meaningfully spread into broader price pressures, which remain mild, so she expects the Bank to hold rates through the year.

    Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026

  • Abbey Xu

    Economist

    RBC Economics

    Calls a hold

    bips read: Neutral

    · Rate outlook

    Base case is 2.25% through year-end, a modest hike in 2027

    Expects the overnight rate to stay at 2.25% for the rest of 2026 and rise modestly in 2027. She points to the Governor warning that inflation could broaden and persist, and says the Bank is finding it harder to look past higher energy prices.

    Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026

  • Nathan Janzen

    Assistant Chief Economist

    RBC

    Calls a hold

    bips read: Neutral

    · October 28 decision

    Calls October 28 a live meeting, but a hike is not his base case

    Sees a hike as possible but not his base case. He expects no hikes in 2026 and modest tightening from 2027, with the Bank weighing signs of spreading inflation against labour market weakness in a wait-and-see stance.

    Source: Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, Oct 16, 2026

Mortgage industry voices

The commentators brokers read for what a rate move means for clients.

  • Tanya Woods

    Managing Director, Head of Government and Regulatory Affairs

    Questrade

    · Rate outlook

    Rates will rise eventually, but the Bank will hold as long as it can

    Expects rates to go up eventually, but says the Bank will try to keep them steady for as long as it can. Her comments look ahead to future decisions rather than a specific meeting.

    Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional, Sep 24, 2026

How the decision gets made

The Governing Council meets ahead of each of the eight scheduled announcements and decides by consensus, with no formal vote. The Governor leads the discussion and announces the result at 9:45 a.m. Eastern.

The Governor and Senior Deputy Governor are appointed by the Bank's Board of Directors, which is separate from the Governing Council. The government and the Bank jointly set the 2% inflation target.

Statements and stance labels on this page are bips' summary of public remarks and link to the original source. Stance labels are our reading, not how anyone describes themselves, and are not investment or mortgage advice.

Frequently asked questions

Who is on the Bank of Canada Governing Council?
Tiff Macklem (Governor), Carolyn Rogers (Senior Deputy Governor), Toni Gravelle (Deputy Governor), Nicolas Vincent (Deputy Governor), Michelle Alexopoulos (External Deputy Governor), Marc-André Gosselin (Deputy Governor). The Governing Council is the Governor, the Senior Deputy Governor and the Deputy Governors.
Who decides the Bank of Canada interest rate?
The Governing Council sets the policy rate together, by consensus rather than a formal vote. The Governor chairs the discussion and announces the decision. The Finance Minister does not set the rate, though the government and the Bank jointly agree the 2% inflation target.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate decision?
The next scheduled announcement is October 28, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. The Bank announces eight times a year.
Can I see how the Governing Council reached a decision?
Yes. About two weeks after each announcement the Bank publishes a summary of the Governing Council deliberations, which sets out the considerations behind the decision.
Which economists and commentators are on this page?
Named forecasters and industry voices whose views on the Bank are published by news outlets. Every entry is dated and links to the original article. The summaries are bips paraphrases of what was reported, not quotes, and a person is only listed with a call when the source states it.
How does the poll work?
You get one vote per device on whether the rate goes up, holds or goes down at the next announcement. Voting closes when the decision is announced. Results show after you vote. It is an informal poll of site visitors, not a forecast.
What do the stance labels mean?
Hawkish means favouring higher rates to fight inflation, dovish means favouring lower rates to support growth. The labels on this page are the bips reading of public statements, not how the person describes themselves, and each links to the original source so you can judge for yourself.

Sources: Bank of Canada, Governing Council. See also the current rate and every decision since 2022.

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