Archive · October 28, 2026
Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50%: who called October 28, 2026
3 of 7 economists we track had it right. Polymarket had a hike at 85% and Kalshi had a hike at 81% the night before.
This page is a frozen record of the forecasts for this meeting. The current forecast is on the live page.
Forecast before the decision
Hiked to 2.50%
Forecasts as saved on October 27, 2026, the last night before the announcement.
| Source | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Hike at 85% | Right |
| Kalshi | Hike at 81% | Right |
| bips readers | Hike, 64% of 11 votes | Right |
| Sherry CooperDominion Lending Centres | Called a holdCanadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Missed |
| Derek HoltScotiabank | Called a hikeBloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Right |
| Royce MendesDesjardins Group | Called a hikeBloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Right |
| Shelly KaushikBMO | Called a hikeBloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Right |
| Leslie PrestonTD Economics | Called a holdCanadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Missed |
| Abbey XuRBC Economics | Called a holdCanadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 19, 2026, October 19, 2026 | Missed |
| Nathan JanzenRBC | Called a holdCanadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, Oct 16, 2026, October 16, 2026 | Missed |
What the Bank said
The October 28, 2026 decision
- The overnight rate target rose 25 basis points to 2.50%, the first increase since July 2023. The Bank Rate is 2.75% and the deposit rate 2.45%.
- The Bank said "there could be a need to increase the policy rate further" and that Governing Council "agreed to proceed carefully".
- CPI has been around 3% since April and is expected to reach about 3.5% by year-end. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September.
- The Bank projects growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028. It named the Middle East conflict, businesses passing on costs, Canada–US trade and AI-sector volatility as the main risks.
FAQ
About this archive
What did the Bank of Canada do on October 28, 2026?
It raised its rate to 2.50%.
How is this forecast scored?
Each source is judged on its pick before the announcement: the outcome a prediction market priced highest, the call a named economist had on record, and the choice most bips readers voted for. The result is what the policy rate did on decision day, from the Bank of Canada Valet series.
See the current Bank of Canada forecast and the full scorecard.
Know who is renewing before the rate moves
The bips CRM tracks every client renewal and flags who to call. Be the broker who phones first.