Market data
Canadian Market Data
Live rates, indicators, and trends from the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada.
- BoC policy rate
- 2.25%
- Prime 4.45%-0.25 YoY
- Next announcement
- October 28
- 2w 6d
- 5-year GoC bond
- 3.59%
- Drives fixed rates+0.84 YoY
Live from the Bank of Canada, as of Oct 6, 2026
Rate Direction
Yield curve, mortgage spreads, housing supply, and borrower stress signals.
Yield Curve
+0.58%
10yr minus 3yr spread
Normal: economy expanding
Mortgage Spread
2.60%
Posted 5yr minus 5yr bond
Wide: banks pricing in risk
Supply Pipeline
229K
annualized housing starts
-6.2% vs year ago
Borrower Stress
0.23%
mortgage arrears rate
+4 bps vs year ago
Year-Over-Year
12-month change
BoC Rate
2.25%
-10.0%was 2.50%
5yr Bond
3.59%
+30.6%was 2.75%
Prime Rate
4.45%
-5.3%was 4.70%
Unemployment
6.4%
-9.9%was 7.1%
Housing Starts
229K
-6.2%was 244K
MLS HPI
127.0
-3.2%was 131.2
Mortgage Debt
$2.45T
+4.0%was $2.35T
Arrears
0.23%
+21.1%was 0.19%
Renewal Pipeline
Mortgage maturities by month, type, and volume. Covers ~80% of the market (OSFI-regulated institutions).
Monthly Renewal Wave
Mortgages maturing per month (thousands) · Sep 2024 to Dec 2028
Pipeline
1.8M
Peak
Jun '26
Total
5.7M
2024
0.4M
2025
1.7M
2026
1.8M
2027
1.4M
2028
0.4M
BoC Staff Analytical Note SAN-2025-1 (Chart C4) · bips.ca
Origination Trends
Funding volumes, rate type mix, amortization, insurance split, and buyer composition.
Insured $ Advanced
$11B
▼ $1B
-3.5% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Uninsured $ Advanced
$46B
▼ $6B
+16.0% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Avg Insured Rate
4.16%
▼ 0.06
-4.4% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Avg Uninsured Rate
4.29%
▼ 0.03
-6.3% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Actual 5yr Fixed
4.24%
▼ 0.05
Aug 2026
Actual 5yr Variable
3.70%
Aug 2026
Rate Type Mix
Apr 2026 · change vs prior quarter
Source: Bank of Canada FVI (OSFI RESL2)
Amortization Period
Apr 2026 · change vs prior quarter
Source: Bank of Canada FVI (OSFI RESL2). New originations at federally regulated institutions (~80% of market).
Insured vs Uninsured
BoC A4 & CMHC RMIDR · Jul 2026
Insured
$378B
23%
Uninsured
$1.25T
77%
CMHC / Sagen / Canada Guaranty backed vs no default insurance
Bank of Canada A4 Banking & Financial Statistics · Federally regulated institutions only
Buyer Composition
Share of originations (OSFI-regulated institutions, RESL2)
First-Time Buyers
44.5%
▲ 2.6
+3.4% vs year ago
Jan 2026
Repeat Buyers
30.0%
▼ 2.8
-2.3% vs year ago
Jan 2026
Investors
25.5%
▲ 0.2
-3.0% vs year ago
Jan 2026
Population 25-44
12.0M
prime homebuying cohort
-0.1% vs year ago
Median income (25-54): $58,500
Price Expectations (12mo)
+3.6%
national avg
ON
+2.5%
BC
+0.6%
AB
+3.6%
QC
+5.0%
Atlantic
+4.0%
BoC Consumer Survey of Canadian Expectations
BoC A4 (funds advanced, rates) · BoC FVI RESL2 (rate type, amortization, buyer types) · BoC FVI Weekly (actual rates) · StatsCan (demographics, income) · BoC Consumer Survey (price expectations) · as of Jul 2026
Borrower Health
Arrears, LTV distribution, debt service ratios, and credit quality.
Arrears by Product Type
60+ days in arrears, BoC FVI
LTV Distribution at Origination
Loan-to-value ratio of new mortgages
Average LTV: 72.9%
Median LTI
290.1%
▼ 5.5
-2.7% vs year ago
Jan 2026
LTI >450%
13.2%
▲ 0.1
+5.6% vs year ago
Jan 2026
Median DSR
18.4%
▼ 0.3
-5.6% vs year ago
Jan 2026
DSR >25%
20.8%
▼ 0.8
-19.1% vs year ago
Jan 2026
Delinquency Rate (2015-2025)
Source: CMHC Mortgage and Debt Data Tables · bips.ca
Credit Card Stress (Mortgage Holders)
Avg CC Utilization
25.1%
▲ 0.0
-1.3% vs year ago
Apr 2026
CC Util >80%
9.9%
▼ 0.0
-1.9% vs year ago
Apr 2026
CC 30+ Day Delinq
1.8%
▲ 0.0
+1.1% vs year ago
Apr 2026
BoC FVI_HOUSEHOLD · Mortgage holders tracked by credit bureaus
Current LTV Distribution (Outstanding Stock)
All outstanding mortgages, not just new originations
≤65% LTV
71.2%
65-80% LTV
20.2%
80%+ LTV
8.4%
BoC Staff Analytical Note SAN-2025-21 (Chart C2)
Sub-660 Share
3.8%
-0.9pp
700+ Share
89.7%
New loansNew
Avg Score
755
New borrowersNew
Borrower Credit Quality
Source: CMHC / Equifax Canada · bips.ca
BoC FVI (arrears, LTV, LTI, DSR at origination, CC stress, RESL2) · CMHC / Equifax Canada (credit quality) · as of Apr 2026
Beyond the headline rate
Delinquency by Lender Type
CMHC's headline delinquency rate (0.22%) covers insured residential mortgages at chartered banks. Below is the 90+ day arrears rate broken out by lender type and insurance status.
MIE Uninsured
2.38%
90+ day arrears
vs CMHC Headline
11x
higher than reported
MIE Uninsured Low
0.62%
2022Q2
Increase Since Low
285%
2022Q2 to 2025Q3
90+ Day Delinquency Rate by Lender Type (Uninsured)
Source: CMHC RMIR Dashboard (OSFI E2 + StatsCan Survey of Non-Bank Mortgage Lenders) · bips.ca
Market Size by Lender Type (Q3 2025)
| Lender Type | Insured | Uninsured | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chartered Banks | 1473K | 3584K | 5.06M |
| Credit Unions | 289K | 1193K | 1.48M |
| MFC/Trust | 191K | 60K | 0.25M |
| MIE (Private) | 37K | 68K | 0.11M |
| Total Market | 1.99M | 4.91M | 6.90M |
71% of all mortgages are uninsured. Bank arrears suppressed in CMHC download for confidentiality. · bips.ca
Ontario Private Lending (FSRA 2024)
FSRA's Annual Report shows 65,233 private mortgages worth $32B in Ontario alone, 15.8% of the market. MIE delinquency hit 1.22% (Q3 2024), and 39% of consumers in this channel are classified as "vulnerable" (up from 22%).
51% of private mortgages with 6-month terms had APRs exceeding 35%. These borrowers face the highest renewal risk, and many lack an exit strategy back to traditional lending.
Headline vs. full market comparison
CMHC's headline delinquency rate (0.22%) covers insured mortgages at chartered banks. MIE uninsured delinquency is 2.38%, 11x the headline rate, up from 0.62% (2022Q2). Private lenders without public reporting obligations are not included in any of these figures.
Geography
Mortgage balances by province (chartered bank holdings, BoC A4).
Mortgage Assets by Province
Chartered bank residential mortgage holdings (BoC A4)
BoC A4 Banking & Financial Statistics (province balances) · as of Apr 2026
Economic Indicators
GDP, employment, inflation, housing supply, and market indices.
GDP (Monthly)
$2.37T
▼ $0B
+1.4% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Unemployment Rate
6.4%
-9.9% vs year ago
Aug 2026
Employment
21.2M
▼ 41.7K
+1.0% vs year ago
Aug 2026
Inflation (CPI YoY)
3.0%
+57.9% vs year ago
Aug 2026
CPI Shelter
190.9
▲ 0.6
+1.5% vs year ago
Aug 2026
Retail Sales
$73.7B
▼ $549M
+5.1% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Housing Starts
229K
▼ 0.3K
-6.2% vs year ago
Aug 2026
Posted 5yr Mortgage
6.19%
▲ 0.10
+1.6% vs year ago
Oct 2026
MLS Home Price Index
127.0
▲ 0.1
-3.2% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Sales-to-Listings
51.3%
▲ 1.1
+1.4% vs year ago
Jul 2026
Building Permits
$12.2B
▼ $2.6B
+0.9% vs year ago
Jul 2026
New Housing Price Index
120.4
▼ 0.1
-2.0% vs year ago
Aug 2026
Combined Economic Indicators (Quarterly Data)
All indicators on a single scale · interactive zoom and pan · 10 years (2015-2025)
- BoC Rate
- 2.25%
- Oct 2025
- US Fed Rate
- 3.63%
- Dec 2025
- 5Y Bond Yield
- 2.96%
- Jan 2026
- Inflation
- 2.4%
- Dec 2025
- Unemployment
- 6.5%
- Jan 2026
- GDP Growth
- +0.6%
- Q3 2025
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Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada · Quarterly data: 40 quarters (Q1 2015 to Q3 2025) · bips.ca
2024 PRs
484K
+2.6%
NPRs
2.8M
7.3% of pop
2025 Target
395K
-18% cut-18%
Immigration & Population Growth
Source: Statistics Canada, IRCC · bips.ca
Bank of Canada Valet API (policy rate, bonds, CPI, posted mortgage rate) · Statistics Canada (GDP, labour force, housing starts, building permits, HPI, retail sales) · as of Oct 2026
Analysis
The Renewal Wall: Where Every Borrower Fits
We mapped 1.8M renewing mortgages to A-lender, B-lender, and private tiers using the data above. See the full breakdown with live charts.
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