Key facts this week
| Fact | Figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.5% | Up 0.25 points |
| 5-year yield | 3.39% | Down from 3.58% |
| 5-50 unit insurance | Feb 1, 2027 | 90% LTV, 50-year terms |
| New 3-4 unit homes | 10% down | 30-year amortization |
| October jobs | 6.7% | Up 0.2 points |
| Dec 9 hike odds | About 30% | Polymarket |
| CRA income tool | $13M | Brokers not yet in |
| Foreign buyer ban | Jan 1, 2029 | Proposed; new homes exempt |
| Insurance price cap | $1.5M | Proposed, no start date |
| Tariffs | Democrats vow repeal | Cannot override veto |
| October home sales | Down everywhere | -7.9% to -18% |
| Laurentian Bank | Closed Nov 1 | Sold to Fairstone, NBC |
| B2B Bank | Now Fairstone's | 27,000 advisers, brokers |
| Tru Cooperative Bank | Broker centre | Expands to AB, SK, MB |
| FSRA call for input | Experts wanted | Mortgage industry |
| FSRA fine | $15,000 | Level 1 licence refused |
For your clients this week:
- Multi-unit buyers: 50-year insurance starts Feb 1, 2027. Plan around it, but several other budget items are still proposals.
- Variable-rate clients: December hike odds fell to about 30% after weak jobs, and the 5-year yield fell 19 basis points.
- Laurentian and B2B clients: B2B Bank now sits under Fairstone. Confirm the servicing contact.
1. Budget 2026 opens 50-year insurance for apartments
The news: From February 1, 2027, lenders and insurers can insure buildings with 5 to 50 units for up to 90% of value on new construction (85% otherwise), with amortizations of up to 50 years on new construction (40 otherwise). There is no value cap and no owner occupancy requirement. New three- and four-unit homes get a 10% down payment and a 30-year amortization. (Finance Canada, Nov 5) Construction loans can also be insured for up to 90% of the projected completed value. (MPA, Nov 6)
Still proposed, so confirm before quoting clients (Budget 2026, chapter 3, Nov 5):
- The foreign buyer ban on existing homes runs to Jan 1, 2029, and new homes are exempt, with details to come.
- The optional insurance price limit would rise from $1 million to $1.5 million. No start date is given.
- OSFI would have competition as a secondary objective, which MPC says could strengthen brokers' role in comparing lenders.
- The deposit insurance limit would rise from $100,000 to $250,000.
Our read: The 5 to 50 unit rules are the broker story. CMT reports they let private insurers compete with CMHC on these buildings. (CMT, Nov 6)
2. CRA income verification gets $13 million
The news: Budget 2026 proposes $13 million over three years, starting in 2027-28, for a CRA service that would verify mortgage applicants' income through agreements with lenders and insurers. It is meant to curb mortgage fraud. (MPC, Nov 6; Budget 2026, chapter 3, Nov 5)
The catch: Brokers and brokerages are not named. MPC says it "will continue advocating to ensure mortgage brokers and brokerages are included," and MPA reports direct broker access has been unresolved since consultations began in late 2024. (MPA, Nov 6)
Our read: Until brokers are included, the service would sit with lenders and insurers. Watch for the regulations.
3. Yields fall and the Bank keeps its inflation target
The news: The 5-year yield closed at 3.58% on Oct 29 and 3.39% on Nov 5, down 19 basis points since last week's hike. (Bank of Canada Valet, daily close)
Fixed-rate funding costs fell for the week after the hike. Source: Bank of Canada, 5-year benchmark, Oct 29 to Nov 5.
The framework: The Government and the Bank renewed the inflation target for five years, to Dec 31, 2031. It stays at 2%, with a 1% to 3% control range. (Bank of Canada, Nov 5)
What's next: Polymarket priced a December 9 hike at about 29 to 30% on Friday, down from about 35% a week earlier. That is a market price, not a forecast from the Bank.
4. Jobs stall and unemployment rises again
The news: Employment was down 4,700 in October and unemployment rose 0.2 points to 6.7%, the second straight increase. Youth unemployment rose 0.7 points to 13.7%, and wages rose 2.2% from a year earlier. (Statistics Canada, Nov 6)
What the market did: Pricing for a January hike fell to 77% from 96% the day before, according to TD Economics. (MPA, Nov 6)
Our read: Weak jobs give the Bank a reason to hold in December, though one month is not a trend.
5. Democrats say they will end the Canada tariffs, but not yet
The news: Republicans lost the House and Senate on Nov 3, and Democrats have pledged to repeal Trump's tariffs on Canada. They lack the votes to override a veto. (Yahoo Finance Canada, Nov 6)
The timing: The new Congress is not seated until January. US tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber remain, and there is no trade deal. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc: "That's not going to change the work that we have to do in the next two weeks." Two unnamed senior sources say the result improves Canada's position, though they do not count on Democratic help. (CTV News, Nov 4)
Our read: Relief would help growth and jobs, but nothing changes before January.
6. Laurentian Bank closes, and B2B Bank moves to Fairstone
The news: The sale closed on Nov 1. Fairstone Bank bought all Laurentian shares at $40.50 cash and National Bank took the retail and SME portfolios. The shares delisted from the TSX after close on Nov 3. (Laurentian Bank, Nov 2)
For brokers: B2B Bank, which serves about 27,000 advisers and brokers, now operates as a wholly owned Fairstone subsidiary. No changes to its products, broker programs or servicing were announced, so confirm your servicing contact. (MPA, Nov 3)
More from the week
Housing markets
- October sales fell in every big market we checked. Toronto was down 7.9% from a year earlier (average price $1,024,108, down 2.7%), Vancouver down 10.2% (benchmark $1,068,600, down 5.2%), Ottawa down 10.7% and Montreal down 18%. Calgary was down 15.3%, per CMT's headline. (CMT, Nov 4; CMT/GVR, Nov 4; OREB, Nov 5; QPAREB, Nov 6; CMT, Nov 4)
Montreal fell the most. Sales, October vs October 2025. Calgary per CMT's headline; we did not open the board release.
- Condo prices fell 0.6% nationally in Q3 on Statistics Canada's new condo apartment price index. (Statistics Canada, Nov 3)
Policy and people
- Immigration levels for 2027 to 2029 target 380,000 permanent residents and 370,000 new temporary residents a year. (IRCC, Nov 5)
Brokers and regulators
- MPC also asked B.C. to review its new Restricted Insurance Agent licensing before Jan 1, 2027. (MPC, Nov 4)
- FSRA is asking mortgage industry experts for input. Check its mortgage brokering page for what it wants and how to apply. (FSRA, Nov 3)
- Tru Cooperative Bank is taking its Mortgage Broker Centre to Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with MCAP underwriting. In Ontario it approved over $200 million in 77 days. (MPA, Nov 5)
- FSRA also refused to renew a former Level 1 agent's licence and fined him $15,000 for dealing in mortgages outside his brokerage. (MPA, Nov 2)
- CIRO barred a securities representative who used a client's identity to get a $268,400 mortgage on the client's home. (MPA, Nov 4)
What to expect next week
Expect lender reaction to the Feb 1 insurance rules, details on the foreign buyer exemption and October CPI. Confirm dates first.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon Nov 16 | Statistics Canada CPI for October (confirm) |
| Wed Dec 9 | Bank of Canada decision |
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Corrections will be dated here.